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Which cognitive bias leads someone to assess the likelihood of events based on their immediate recall?



The availability heuristic is the cognitive bias that leads someone to assess the likelihood of events based on their immediate recall. This heuristic relies on the ease with which instances or examples come to mind when evaluating a topic, decision, or method. Events that are more easily recalled, either due to their vividness, recency, or emotional impact, are often judged as being more frequent or probable than they actually are. This can lead to skewed risk assessments and inaccurate judgments, as the availability of information in memory does not necessarily reflect its actual prevalence in the real world.