Which strand of liberalism posits that economic interdependence reduces the likelihood of conflict between states?

The strand of liberalism that posits that economic interdependence reduces the likelihood of conflict between states is commercial liberalism. Commercial liberalism emphasizes the pacifying effects of trade and economic ties between countries. Economic interdependence refers to a situation where states are mutually reliant on each other for economic resources, goods, and services. This reliance creates a mutual interest in maintaining peaceful relations. Commercial liberals argue that when states are economically interconnected, the costs of conflict increase significantly. War disrupts trade, investment, and supply chains, leading to economic losses for all parties involved. This makes war a less attractive option. For example, if two countries heavily trade with each other, imposing tariffs or engaging in warfare would damage both economies, making conflict less appealing. Furthermore, commercial liberalism suggests that economic interdependence fosters cooperation in other areas. Regular interaction and shared economic interests can lead to the development of trust and mutual understanding, which can spill over into political and security relations. International institutions like the World Trade Organization (WTO) are often cited as examples of how commercial liberalism promotes peace by facilitating trade and resolving economic disputes. By reducing trade barriers and establishing rules for international commerce, these institutions create a more stable and predictable economic environment, reducing the likelihood of conflict. The core idea is that trade creates mutual benefits and shared interests that outweigh the potential gains from military aggression. This is why commercial liberals often advocate for free trade agreements and the reduction of trade barriers between states.