Why is 'attribution' considered a significant challenge in cyber deterrence?

'Attribution' is a significant challenge in cyber deterrence because accurately identifying the perpetrator of a cyberattack is often difficult, time-consuming, and sometimes impossible. Cyberattacks can be launched from anywhere in the world, and attackers can use various techniques to mask their identities and origins, such as using proxy servers, botnets, and stolen credentials. This makes it challenging to definitively link an attack back to a specific individual, group, or nation-state. Without clear attribution, it is difficult to implement effective deterrence strategies. Deterrence relies on the ability to credibly threaten retaliation or impose costs on the attacker, but if the attacker cannot be identified with certainty, it is difficult to hold them accountable. For example, if a nation-state's critical infrastructure is targeted by a cyberattack, but it is impossible to determine who launched the attack, it is difficult to justify a retaliatory response against another nation-state. The lack of attribution can also create opportunities for plausible deniability, where attackers can claim that they were not responsible for the attack or that they were acting without the knowledge or approval of their government. This can further complicate efforts to deter cyberattacks and hold perpetrators accountable. The difficulty of attribution has led to the development of alternative cyber deterrence strategies, such as 'deterrence by denial,' which focuses on making systems more resilient to cyberattacks, rather than relying on the threat of retaliation.